18. Now we are Dead

Again setting the scene for the G20 meeting, this post relates to a play about climate ethics written by another of my work colleagues, Craig Duckworth.

Drinks and Drama

at the Hooga Bar,

Victoria Road, Chelmsford, UK

 

4pm-6pm, Wed 7^th December

The play is a dialogue performed by two professional actors, followed by an opportunity for the audience to air their views and share their reactions.

Now We Are Dead has been performed at a number of venues to excellent reviews. We have seen it and found it challenging, stimulating and provocative.

Admission is £3.00 and tickets are available from Craig craig.duckworth@anglia.ac.uk)

Craig is keen to see the play performed elsewhere, so if you would like more information, drop him a line.

Our next post returns to the living and the decisions faced by the G20 leaders.

17. Financial Crisis Update

Our next couple of postings focus on the current G20 meeting in Cannes.

This sets the scene by copying the weekly update a fellow lecturer provides for his students.

It illustrates how bad things are and the dirth of leadership, but also that there is plenty of evidence and analysis on which rational actions could be based. It also shows what a great job the lecturer is doing - email robin.gowers@anglia.ac.uk if you would like to be placed on his circulation list.

Dear All,

I hope that this finds you all well as we approach the final busy weeks of the course.  The feedback from Dr Booth’s talk on Tuesday has been superb.  You have been very lucky to hear from one of the City’s top fund managers.  Someone did say that they also expected Jerome to reveal the secret of making a lot of money – well you did experience part of that.  It is clear that he is very well read.  A course that I (and Margaret O’Quigley) have tried to get the University to run is about economic history.  To understand where we are and where we might be going you have to have a knowledge of similar situations in the past.  Jerome discussed a wide variety of theories and ideas.  As one of my first slides in week one illustrated with Charles Munger:

"In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none, zero."

It went on:

"In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn't read all the time – none, zero. You'd be amazed at how much Warren [Buffett] reads – and at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I'm a book with a couple of legs sticking out."

Some more of his quotes:

"Once you get into debt, it’s hell to get out. Don’t let credit card debt carry over. You can’t get ahead paying eighteen percent."

Could also relate to Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, UK,……and:

"I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don’t believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody’s that smart." 

This Tuesday we have the Vice Chancellor coming in so please be there for the 9am start on time, turn off mobiles, etc!!  I have also received confirmation that Kate Barker will be coming in on November 22^nd.  Kate served on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England from 2001 to 2010.  I will send full details of the talk on soon.

As previously mentioned this is an incredible line up of speakers.  Very few (any?) undergraduate courses offer such a thing so please make the most of it.

The Endgame Cometh:

With Greece shocking the markets by announcing a referendum the € situation has got worse.  As I write the Greek Cabinet are meeting to decide whether to back their Prime Minister or not.  I have repeatedly mentioned that  Greece will default – now the question is by how much more than the 50% agreed last week (90%?) and if they will leave the €.  This truly shows the importance of economics – good economic policies improve most people’s lives.  Bad policies do the opposite – they ruin people’s futures, hopes and dreams.  Never forget the human side to what is going on.  The Greek population are facing either a slow torturous death within the € or a sudden one back with the drachma. 

We are living through events that will impact us all and future generations.  The future prosperity that we hand down to our children and grandchildren could be worse than what we currently have – the stakes are that high.  We really do lack leadership and coherent ideas to help us get through this situation. 

As mentioned the bond market will be a main force in deciding our future.  As I write this things do not look too good.  Worries about a disorderly default in Greece has led Italian 10 year bond yields to rise to 6.399%.  This is a euro era high and 4.59% above the yields on German 10 year bonds.  This spread above the German rate is at levels that make Italy’s debt repayments unsustainable.  Also worryingly the spread that France pays above the German rate has widened to a euro era record as well, 1.35%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15571540

The G20 leaders in Cannes today will have a lot to discuss!!

A great source on the global economy and crisis is this web page from the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special_reports/global_economy/

It is not all bad news – even for some banks.  Take a look at what Standard Chartered have announced:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2011/nov/02/standardchartered-banking

For you marketing people out there, how a big brand is linking in with Facebook:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204294504576613232804554362.html

Regards

Rob

16. Church MisLeadership

The dean of St Paul's Cathedral, the Rt Rev Graeme Knowles, resigned due to fierce criticism of the cathedral's response to the Occupy London movement. "The past fortnight has been a testing time for the chapter and for me personally... It has become increasingly clear to me that, as criticism of the cathedral has mounted in the press, media and in public opinion, my position as dean of St Paul's was becoming untenable. In order to give the opportunity for a fresh approach to the complex and vital questions facing St Paul's, I have thought it best to stand down as dean, to allow new leadership to be exercised."

Individual deans, the cathedral and the whole Anglican church have struggled to find a valid response to the group, their initial reaction being a knee-jerk threat to forcibly evict and sue the protestors for lost revenue which resulted from the cathedral's decision to close due to 'health and safety issues' - subsequently shown to be unfounded. Four days before Graeme Knowles resigned, one of his canon Giles Fraser resigned because of the forcible eviction threat, which he viewed as an unsuitable response from the church.

Resigning and failing to act in these circumstances is a display of Missing Leadership. These people have occupied high level posts with all sorts of status and other benefits, then when a difficult situation appears, they pathetically resign rather than taking on the challenge.

The slogan 'What would Jesus do?' has been used by the Occupy movement to goad the church into action, basically an appeal for support and leadership. Anyone who believes in Jesus would be convinced that he certainly would not have resigned!

The St Paul's chapter which governs the cathedral has asked the bishop of London Dr Richard Chartres to provide temporary assistance. Chartres said he hoped St Paul's could become as significant now as it was during the second world war, when its survival amid the Blitz became a symbol of national defiance. "The church has a very important role to play in providing reasoned debate, in a context which is moral and spiritual."

Yesterday the Archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams joined the debate: "The events of the last couple of weeks have shown very clearly how decisions made in good faith by good people under unusual pressure can have utterly unforeseen and unwelcome consequences...The urgent larger issues raised by the protesters at St Paul's remain very much on the table and we need – as a church and as society as a whole – to work to make sure that they are properly addressed."

He backed calls for a 'Robin Hood' tax on financial trading, stating that the St Paul's protests proved the public felt changes to financial institutions were not coming fast enough, specifically the unfinished business of reform covering relationships between governments and banks so as to deliver a more just and rational system. Dr Williams said the levy would be one way of advancing the moral agenda of the protesters outside St Paul's, others being ideas put forward by the Vatican for creating ethical regulation of financial markets.

Finding a valid response would at least show an ability to react, but what is even more striking is the fact that the church has shown no ability to lead in the current financial and related crises. Surely the moral and spiritual agenda here is central to the role of the church. The lack of a clear objective and mission on which to base its decisions illustrates MisGuided Leadership by the church. Our Global Fitness Framework considers the physical, mental and spiritual fitness of individuals, groups and societies.

David Cameron responded to Dr Williams call for a Robin Hood tax by saying there is widespread support for the principles of such a tax but it had to be adopted globally. This smells of Missing Leadership too.

Our next blog considers the current G20 meeting and its leadership.

15. Winners and Losers 2: The Leadership Fitness See-Saw

             Our previous blog outlined the concept of a Leadership Fitness Continuum.

             Any MisLeadership will push actual leadership fitness down toward diabolical leadership, while examples of Globally Fit Leadership will push it up toward higher leadership fitness.  We may think of these as opposites of the same coin, so for example as decision making becomes more effective, the extent of Missing Leadership dwindles and overall fitness of leadership increases, leading to automatic improvement in wellbeing of humanity.

 There is, however, a fascinating and crucial twist. The above implies the result of the interaction of all the elements of MisLeadership and Global Business Fitness would be a particular leadership fitness level. The question is whether everyone would view this fitness in the same way. Those benefiting from existing leadership actions are likely to view their lives as close to ideal and thus current leadership as very fit, while those suffering extreme poverty and ill-health know their lives are close to hell on earth and current leadership is diabolical.

              We picture this as a see-saw, with winners sitting at the top end and losers at the bottom. In a playground, the child at the lower end of the see-saw has the power to kick off the ground so they can have a turn at the top. On the Leadership Fitness See-Saw, however, it is those at the top who have most power so are able to maintain their position indefinitely – a ‘win-lose’ outcome. The more determined and able such leaders become, the more of a lop-sided effect their actions have, with increased upward force for those benefiting but consequential downward force for those suffering. This links very well with the Drucker quote:

No century has seen more leaders with more charisma than our 20th century and never have political leaders done greater damage than the four great charismatic leaders of (that) century. Stalin, Mussolini, Hitler and Mao. What matters is not charisma. What matters is whether the leader leads in the right direction or misleads.

             As stated above, we argue that humanity’s current position is one where the see-saw is very significantly tilted such that different people have vastly different circumstances. Further, the situation is becoming increasingly biased toward the rich and powerful such that the see-saw is tipping increasingly on its end - and we may all soon fall off! This could be thought of as looming system failure as indicated by the growing number of urgent global issues, many of which are of recent origin, whose number and scale is clear evidence that there are fundamental and growing flaws in how we are running the planet. A global society has to have global leadership to survive.

            Our see-saw implies that one of the main reasons for the increasingly urgent position humanity finds itself in, with so little action taking place to rectify the crisis, may be that the people with the power to act tend to be those who believe they are riding high so have a vested interest in the status quo. These people may be reluctant to change unless they recognize and are concerned about the situation faced by those at the other end, the billions suffering from lack of food, water and shelter who see their environment as highly toxic and close to hell.

Because the level of inequity is so high, from a global perspective actual leadership fitness must be at a low level. Evidence of inequity came with the announcement last week that the average earnings of directors of FTSE 100 companies was £2.7 million last year, compared to the average national wage of £26,000. That is more than 100 times as much. These are by no means extremes when we consider average income in the Congo of $300 a year, compared to the wealth of the richest person in the world of $74 Billion, which is 250 million times as much. How could anyone even dream of justifying such inequality? No wonder people like those occupying Wall Street and St Paul's have said "enough"!

Our next blog comments on the resignations of St Paul's church officals.

14. Winners and Losers 1: The Leadership Fitness Continuum

                In our last post we discussed the recent London riots and the way in which our media, Prime Minister David Cameron and the justice system all jumped on the bandwagon of calling for drastic action against the perpetrators without proper consideration of its consequences and validity. We stated that this might be expected of society's "winners" - taking the opportunity to keep the "losers" down. This blog develops this thought by way of our Leadership Fitness Continuum.

                Globally Fit Leadership is our term for the best possible leadership that humans are capable of while Diabolical Leadership would be the worst possible. Actual Leadership Fitness represents the quality or fitness level of leadership currently taking place. The gap between actual and globally fit leadership is the room for improvement and that between actual and diabolical leadership the extent to which we should be pleased with the leadership we have!

                                              

                                       Leadership Fitness Continuum

                                    Globally Fit leadership

                                                Room for Improvement

                                    Actual Leadership Fitness

                                                Potential for Decline

                                   Diabolical Leadership

                       One explanation of the current crisis in leadership might be that the fitness level of current leadership is not sufficient to cope with the challenges of the modern environment.  Leadership fitness may have declined in recent times but it may equally be the case that the challenges faced may be much greater so the Globally Fit Leadership goal is much harder to achieve.  The Leadership Fitness Continuum is useful for identifying a number of points for reflection:

                  - What would globally fit leadership look and feel like?
                 -  What would be the outcomes if globally fit leadership were present?
                 -  How fit is your own leadership?

                To close the gap between actual leadership fitness and GFL we need to identify and reduce the MisLeadership that is taking place. It is difficult to stand still so unless we work on our fitness it is likely to decline – perhaps the current leadership crisis is partly due to historic complacency?

                Our next blog considers the importance of these ideas to 'winners' and 'losers'

13 Riots: A Wake Up Call - At Last!?

One might expect the public to over-react to last week's riots, and given the standard of our media that they too would be baying for blood. One would not expect both the Prime Minister David Cameron and the justice system would also jump on the bandwagon.

Or perhaps that is naive - we should expect society's "winners" to take the opportunity to keep the "losers" down - a point which will be returned to in the next blog.

David Cameron's main reactions (aside from slating the police - see blog 12) seem to have been to claim this is a wake-up call and that severe actions should be taken against the perpetrators and their families, including imprisonment for very minor misdemeanours, withdrawal of their / their parent's social security payments and possible eviction from their homes if they are council tenants.

He is right about the wake-up call. The first of our 8 'initial steps toward globally fit leadership' is WAKE UP! The question is, how many wake up calls are needed before he takes properly thought-through effective action? He is the Prime Minister! I find it hard to stomach ordinary members of the public saying 'someone should do something' implying it is nothing to do with them, but for the Prime Minister to adopt that stance is mind blowing. OK, its a wake up call - 1, 2, 3.. WAKE UP!!

Concern over the 'toxic childhood' we give our children has been expressed very loud and clear for many years yet governments have failed to tackle the issue effectively and the current government has been reducing the attention and funding given them - while talking about the need to cut the top tax rate from the current 50%

The first phase of our ASK SIR L decision making model is ASK: Appreciate a problem exists, Specify its scale and scope, and assess the Kauses. The knee-jerk reactions listed above would not help to tackle the problem - instead make it far worse - but the main point here is that the ASK phase has not been carried out.

No proper attempt has been made to establish what the true problem underlying the riots is, its scope and underlying causes. Jumping on the bandwagon is surely what most of the rioters did yet the courts are treating them as if they had made long-term carefully thought-through actions and were part of an organised gang. A woman who was given a stolen pair of shorts by a friend has been jailed for 6 months. How will David Cameron be judged and sentenced by society for his MisLeadership?!

Pages 39 to 43 of our MisLeadership book provide an introduction to the problem of toxic childhood and its solution. It clearly goes far wider than the recent riots, which are a symptom rather than cause. Outcomes of toxic childhood covered include rising obesity, posture and eye-sight problems, lack of reasoning and social skill development, little outdoor exercise, too much time watching television and playing computer games, and consumption of large amounts of junk food. Causes outlined include the collapse of family life; misguided focus of education on developing skills for the economy; use of exam-results-based performance measures to judge schools and pupils; misinformation by the media; excessive use of vetting and barring schemes for those running youth clubs and the terrible abuse over an 80 year period of children by Catholic priests and others involved in running children's homes. Additionally, the environment in which children grow up has changed fundamentally (i-phones, social media etc) but our treatment of them has not kept pace with the challenges.

In the book we wonder whether the fundamental difficulties are a lack of a full appreciation of the issues, how significant they are, and their underlying causes, with the result that solutions implemented have not been effective. They have been piecemeal rather than a coordinated systematic response.

The recent riots and knee-jerk reactions only strengthen our concern. It is obvious that threatening withdrawal of social security payments and eviction from their homes assumes that the perpetrators came from broken homes but does nothing to help the plight of such families. The woman mentioned above who has been imprisoned for 6 months has two young children - what affect will placing her in prison for her very minor offence have on their upbringing?

The Prime Minister should get off the bandwagon, take a deep breath and start looking for real answers. Our book could help!!

12. Riots: Who'd be a Policeman?

It has been scary watching the riots in the last week. Those involved acted in a completely irresponsible and unacceptable way and should be punished. Thieir combined actions resulted in several deaths and millions of pounds worth of property damage, including major arson that could have resulted in many more deaths.

But I have found it equally frightening watching the reaction of the media, politicians and courts: those supposed to be leaders of society. Their actions have displayed gross MisLeadership in all its guises.

Our next few blogs respond to the riots and their aftermath. This one looks at the role and actions of the police and those claiming to lead them.

Very fast criticism was made of the way the police handled the riots including the Home Secretary Theresa May saying they were too slow to act and not robust enough in their actions. She then attempted to give the impression that their subsequent change of approach was due to her intervention, including ordering them to cancel all police leave - a power which she does not and should not posess. The truth is the police were, like everyone else including the government, taken by surprise at the speed and severity of the riots, and were initially vastly outnumbered and under-equipped. They reacted extremely professionally and bravely.

Had they attempted to make arrests on the first night most of their limited numbers would have been involved, so the situation on the streets made far worse. Instead they coralled the rioters, protected lives as their main priority, then property where possible. Instead of futilely attempting to make arrests on the spot, they photographed those involved so that they could arrest them once the immediate threat had been dealt with. By the second night, police chiefs had been able to increase numbers on the street so could take more immediate actions, which they did so effectively that the rioting rapidly ceased.

Rather than criticising their actions and falsely attempting to claim credit for their change of tactic, the Home Secretary should have praised them for their ability to handle the situation with so little loss of life, relatively little damage, and ultimate ability to identify and bring to justice those involved. We should recall that the police have faced recent criticism for being too heavy-handed when dealing with rioters, yet suddenly their actions here were being lambasted as ineffective by the very politicians who should be supporting them. Further, the government had made clear their intention to reduce police budgets.

David Cameron the Prime Minister made matters even worse by announcing he would be seeking advice from William Bratton, the man credited with reducing street crime in New York, Los Angeles and Boston. Surely the most superficial analysis would make one expect that our police have little to learn from those policing such crime-ridden parts of the US but the crucial point here is the display of total lack of faith in and support for our own police despite their evdent top quality performance in handling the riots. How can he think that such a move can help relations between the government and police force?

The police continue to act professionally themselves and protect us from riots and other unruly behaviour which results in part from the government's failure to lead society effectively.

In the words of Gilbert abd Sullivan "A Policeman's Lot is Not a Nappy One". But it would be helped by proper leadership and support from the Home Secretary and Prime Minister.